NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Estimating exactly when the Treasury Department will be unable to pay all the bills coming due every day if Congress fails to raise the nation's legal borrowing limit is notoriously difficult.
That's why, in an analysis released Tuesday, the Bipartisan Policy Center put the "X date" between Oct. 18 and Nov. 5.
Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has warned that by mid-October the agency will have only $50 billion in cash on top of incoming revenue.
That may sound like a lot. But, as the Bipartisan Policy Center details, it won't last very long.
If the "X" date turns out to be Oct. 18, Treasury would run about $106 billion short of the money it owes between then and Nov.15. That means it wouldn't be able to pay the equivalent of a third of all the bills due during that period.
Here's why: Treasury handles tens of millions of payments a month. Those payments are not evenly spaced out so on some days more is owed than on others. And the revenue flowing into federal coffers is unpredictable and varies from day to day.
Payments include IRS refunds, Social Security and veterans benefits, Medicare reimbursements for doctors and hospitals, bond interest owed investors, payments to contractors and paychecks for federal workers and military personnel. 
First Published: September 10, 2013: 10:06 AM ET
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